Campari - Updated Investment Thesis
The Outlier among spirit companies
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Campari - Full analysis of Campari, one of the world’s leading premium spirits manufacturers , which has dropped considerably in the last 18 months due to a mix of sector headwinds and internal setbacks. We analyse each of its brands and individual comparison with Diageo, Pernod Ricard... We also explain its business model, marketing strategy, capital structure, economics, valuation…. Downloadable spreadsheet with tons of information used for this analysis.
One of the most detailed analyses we have done in these 5 years.
SeSa - We published this Friday an update on this Italian Company that is back to strong growth again.
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The Week in the Markets
A week packed with macro data (somewhat distorted by the shutdown of the US administration for several weeks), in which inflation surprised to the downside, the labor market continued to cool without breaking, and growth indicators softened modestly. This led indices to close just shy of new highs, mainly driven by the Mag7 (with Tesla jumping nearly 5% and NVIDIA rebounding by more than 3%), which have capped off a spectacular second half of the year and, with just over a week left until year-end, are up 24%.
November CPI surprised sharply on the downside, with core inflation falling to its slowest pace since 2021, largely driven by housing disinflation. While shutdown-related data issues likely overstate the magnitude of the slowdown, the underlying trend remains constructive, with easing shelter and wage pressures pointing to a gradual moderation in services inflation.
In parallel, and as a useful contextual datapoint rather than a direct consequence, U.S. households now hold more wealth in equities than in real estate. This largely reflects the strong performance of equity markets in recent years and the drag from higher mortgage rates on housing valuations and activity. In this sense, easing inflation acts more as a reinforcing backdrop for financial asset prices than as a driver of the shift itself.
Payrolls rebounded in November after an October decline that was heavily distorted by federal job losses, while private-sector hiring remains broadly stable. Unemployment rose to 4.6%, but for the “right” reason — higher labor-force participation — and wage growth continued to cool. Overall, the labor market appears to be normalizing gradually rather than deteriorating.
After last week’s uncertainty, Kevin Hassett has re-emerged as the clear favorite, a shift the market is interpreting as incrementally more dovish Fed leadership. In practice, this reinforces expectations of additional rate cuts in 2026, not aggressive, but more persistent than previously priced. With inflation and wages cooling and no signs of renewed overheating, policy is gradually shifting from restrictive toward neutral — a constructive backdrop for risk assets and duration-sensitive segments.
At the same time, investor cash levels sit near cycle lows, suggesting positioning is already largely deployed. With valuations in AI-exposed mega-cap tech increasingly stretched, marginal flows are less about adding risk and more about rotating within equities. This environment is increasingly supportive of a shift from AI-led momentum toward more value-oriented, cyclical, mid-cap and international themes, where valuations are less demanding and earnings leverage to easier financial conditions is higher.
Neither this week nor next week are there any companies reporting earnings—as is only natural due to the Christmas and New Year holiday shutdown; the only one that does (and yes, this is serious) is Good Times Restaurants, which reports on December 23 after the market close.
Davide Campari - Updated Investment Thesis
Campari is the sixth-largest player worldwide in the global premium spirits industry. Among its 72 brands, Campari, SKYY Vodka, Grand Merrier, Courvoisier or the emerging Espolón tequila or its star brand, Aperol, stand out.
Since its IPO in 2001 it has managed to multiply its revenues and EBITDA 6x. Revenues went from 494 to €3Bn, EBITDA 105 to €0.73Bn) as a result of a strategy that has combined the acquisition of more than 30 companies since 1995 and its organic growth with brands such as Aperol going from a turnover of just €25 million in 2003 (acquisition) to more than €750MM today (17% CAGR). or Tequila Espolón, which since 2009 (acquisition) has gone from invoicing just €10MM to nearly €300MM today (35% CAGR).
However, the last 2 and a half years of Campari stock price has not performed as its shareholders would have wanted and after a dreadfulll 024 with strong double digit declines in the price, it is flat YTD.
In 2024 and 2025, there have been diverse events that have impacted the investor sentiment around Campari and its fundamentals:
The farewell of its emblematic CEO Kunze-Concewitz who had been in his position since 2007 (and who, together with the founder of Campari and his son Davide, had become the third most important in the history of this brand).
The resignation of his successor (just 6 months after starting in office)
The acquisition of Courvoisier for almost €1.3Bn (an aggressive price)
Scandals surrounding the Family Office of its Chairman, Luca Who has been buying millions of shares in the open market during the last 2 years, before recently becoming a seller to pay for a tax-evasion lawsuit.
The appointment of Simon Hunt as the new CEO, marking a leadership reset after a turbulent transition period and raising investor focus on execution, strategic discipline and capital allocation under the new management team.
The consumer weakness and the underperformance of the peers of Campari to the broader consumer category (with Campari being the positive outlier).
Campari has experienced a 60% drop since ATH, leaving it at a price of 12x EV/EBITDA, an all time low valuation. This multiple represents a slight premium over its peers Diageo and Pernod Ricard, this is well-justified since Campari exhibits better long-term prospects and recent performance than these spirits peers.
Today we present an in-depth analysis of Campari, the spirits market and the relative positioning of Campari with respect to peers. Our objective is to identify if we are facing a historic investment opportunity or if the fall and rerating is justified.
We cover:
Explanation of the Beverage producing business and the distinctions between the different types of alcohol.
Detailed analysis of its main brands, strategy, and business model (Marketing, distribution, M&A,...)
Comparative analysis (for each beverage brand) with its main competitors (Diageo, Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman)
Detailed analysis of its finances, debt, and capital allocation.
Valuation and Spreadsheet with all the information used in this analysis
