Equity Research Updates on Sky Harbour, Corporación América, Golar LNG & Fortress Infrastructure
MORAM Capital
Hi there, we hope you had a fantastic week !
Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
The Week in the Markets
Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.
Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!
Equity Research
Corporación América - Equity Research update following FY25 results and the impact of the Iran war
Sky Harbour - Equity Research update following FY25 results and accelerating expectations
Fortress Infrastructure - Company update following first results after last summer’s transformational M&A
Golar LNG -Company update on the current situation and updated DCF model
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Investor Resources
Data Center Update - Important news about this soon
Financial model Updates
This week we have moved our corporate website to Moramcapital.com, where we have launched the corporate notes section, in which we provide updates on companies in our universe in response to relevant corporate events, earnings results…
Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Week in the Markets
Five consecutive weeks of losses for US equities, though the pattern this week was more nuanced than the prior ones: Monday opened with genuine relief after Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, lifting equities and compressing oil sharply (WTI fell over 11% in a single session). By midweek the bounce had fully deflated. Geopolitical noise replaced signal, Gulf states publicly signaled involvement was deepening rather than receding, Friday brought another extension (this time 10 days) but the market reaction was muted. as we believe that the market has learned to discount deadline extensions that do not come with concrete de-escalation mechanics.
The most notable aspect of the week, however, was the divergence beneath the surface. The Magnificent 7 fell roughly 5%, dragged down by Meta — off more than 11% on a combination of layoffs and an addictive-platform court ruling — and Alphabet, which shed 8.5%. The Nasdaq has now entered technical correction territory, down more than 10% from its highs. Small caps, by contrast, closed the week in positive territory, with the value factor leading the advance.
Energy was again the best performing sector of the week, acting as a structural hedge against a prolonged conflict. Natural gas leads within the sector: QatarEnergy has now signalled it will extend its force majeure for the duration of the conflict, which means Ras Laffan - the single facility responsible for approximately 20% of global LNG exports - remains offline with no visibility on restart.
The geopolitical backdrop remains highly unstable. Trump’s April 6 pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure has not changed the core picture: Washington’s 15-point proposal was rejected by Tehran as one-sided, while US officials continue to frame the military campaign as weeks rather than months. Meanwhile, disruption around Hormuz persists and the conflict is broadening, including further missile activity from Yemen. The market is therefore still trying to price a war with no credible path to resolution soon
Macro
The key macro release of the week was Tuesday’s March S&P Global PMI, which reinforced the stagflationary narrative and pushed bonds higher. US Composite PMI fell to 51.4, the weakest reading since April 2025, capping the softest quarter since 4Q23. Manufacturing held up better at 52.4, helped by inventory building and a stabilisation in export demand, but Services dropped to 51.1, an 11-month low, with companies pointing to higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions, market volatility and war-related travel disruptions.
More importantly, private sector employment declined for the first time in over a year, while input costs rose sharply, leading to the fastest increase in selling prices since August 2022. Delivery times also deteriorated meaningfully, reflecting renewed shipping disruptions.
Taken together, the PMI data and the ongoing energy shock are creating an increasingly difficult backdrop for the Fed. The pass-through from Brent above $100 and TTF above €55 into both headline and core CPI is not immediate, but it is visible, predictable and still building.
The Fed is effectively stuck. Growth is softening and labour data is weakening, which would normally support cuts, but the energy-driven inflation shock argues the opposite. Cutting risks fuelling inflation, while hiking would worsen the slowdown.
The result is a longer pause. Markets have pushed rate cut expectations sharply out, with the first fully priced cut now in October 2027.
As a result, the 10-year Treasury ended the week near 4.43%. Notably, there has so far been something of a “Trump put” every time the 10-year reaches the 4.4% area, with positive market-facing headlines tending to appear at that point — a 5-day extension, then a 10-day extension, and so on. At the same time, expectations for US rate cuts in 2026 have effectively disappeared, while European and UK markets have shifted to pricing further hikes.
The Week ahead
The war remains the key macro variable. April 6 is the next hard deadline, as Trump’s pause on strikes against Iranian power infrastructure expires then, and any credible signal from the indirect talks - reportedly involving Pakistan and Turkey - is likely to matter more for markets than any economic release.
On the macro side, CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, JOLTS on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday will be the first real test of whether the energy shock is beginning to feed through into consumer behaviour.
Friday is Good Friday, so markets will be closed, but March non-farm payrolls will still be released. Any material surprise will therefore be absorbed on Monday’s open, potentially with greater force. After this week’s first decline in private sector employment in over a year.
As for earnings, the season is now largely over and only a handful of companies are still left to report. On our side, the main focus will be NewPrinces’ results this Monday, which we will be following closely and covering in depth.
Initial Equity Research -
Today, we are taking advantage of the earnings season and everything happening in the Middle East to thoroughly update the Equity Research on several companies we cover in our coverage universe.
Corporación América – We update our thesis and valuation following FY25 results and the impact of the war in Iran
Sky Harbour – We update our thesis and valuation following FY25 results and the acceleration in expectations
Golar LNG – Various comments on the current situation and updated DCF model
Fortress Infrastructure – We analyse the company’s current situation following its first results after the significant M&A completed last summer
Edenred, Puig,... – Comments on this week’s news
Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to our website so they can be found more quickly.)
Corporación América - Updated Equity Research
Corporación América Airports (CAAP) is one of the world’s leading private airport operators. Founded in 1998 by the Eurnekian family - who remains the majority shareholder - it originated with the AA2000 concession to operate 33 Argentine airports, including Ezeiza International and Aeroparque Jorge Newbery, the country’s two main hubs. From there, CAAP expanded internationally into Armenia (2002), Uruguay (2003), Ecuador (2004), Brazil (2012), and Italy (2015), and listed on the NYSE in February 2018. Today it operates 52 airports across 6 countries, serving 86.7 million passengers in 2025 (the best year in company history).
The business model is built around long-term concession agreements with governments. Aeronautical revenues - landing fees, terminal use, passenger boarding charges - move directly with traffic volumes. Non-aeronautical revenues (cargo, duty-free, fuel, VIP lounges, parking, F&B, retail) are the higher-margin segment and exceeded aeronautical revenues for the first time in 2025, reaching 54.5% of total revenue ex-IFRIC12.
Argentina contributes ~55% of consolidated revenue and EBITDA; Armenia (~16%) is the second engine and the fastest-growing segment; Italy (Toscana Aeroporti: Florence and Pisa), Uruguay, Brazil, and Ecuador complete the portfolio (plus new concessions in Angola & Iraq)
Since we published our initial equity research on August 3, highlighting CAAP’s substantial upside, undemanding valuation and broad set of catalysts, the stock rose around 60% over the following five months. That rerating was driven by strong operational execution, new concession wins and a sharp decline in Argentine country risk after the elections. Since February, however, rising tensions around the Iran conflict have reversed part of that move, with CAAP falling more than 20% in recent weeks amid broader pressure on the airport sector and renewed concern around its exposure to traffic flows in the region.
With the company having just reported its strongest full-year results to date, but with the share price pressured by the Iran conflict, today we want to assess whether the current dislocation is creating an attractive opportunity in a business with substantial growth ahead, or whether key elements of the thesis have changed enough to justify staying on the sidelines. To answer that, we look at:
A detailed review of Q4 and FY2025 results across all six operating countries — including what the headline numbers reveal about the underlying evolution of the business
An assessment of how the Iran-Qatar conflict is affecting CAAP, from the direct implications for the Baghdad concession to the indirect traffic impact on Armenia and the rest of the portfolio
A full review of CAAP’s concession pipeline — including Angola, Iraq, Armenia and the strategic developments that have extended the group’s long-term visibility
An updated independent valuation, including a multi-scenario EV/EBITDA sensitivity table, revised FY2026-27 estimates and a discussion of the catalysts
Our independent view on whether the current setup represents a genuine opportunity, and the key variables we are watching most closely