Golar LNG, NextDecade and Venture Global after Ras Laffan (Qatar) attack + NFE Restructuring Deep Dive
Earthquake at the foundations of the LNG industry
Hi there, we hope you had a fantastic week !
Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
The Week in the Markets
Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.
Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!
Equity Research
LNG Industry - Analysis of the equilibrium situation following the attacks on Qatar, the different scenarios going forward, and the implications on the forward curve
New Fortress Energy - Full restructuring analysis, including capital structure, scenarios for the next 3 years, valuation and our independent view.
Venture Global - Valuation Update & Our view on the opportunity
Next Decade - Valuation Update & Our view on the opportunity
Golar LNG - Valuation update and our view on the current situation (10x on the equity since our initial position almost six years ago).
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Investor Resources
Data Center Update
Financial model Updates
Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Week in the Markets
Fourth consecutive week of declines across the major indices, with the Iran war remaining the dominant macro variable and the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision offering no relief. The sell-off continues to be materially more severe in Europe than in the United States, as the impact of higher energy costs is far more pronounced there. Indices are now approaching critical support levels.
The main U.S. indices have already reached key support levels, and the coming week will be decisive in determining whether the correction turns into a significant decline. For now, what is clear is that the energy sector is holding up as a safe haven, with companies set to substantially clean up their balance sheets thanks to the windfall earnings they generate each week that oil (and gas) remain at these price levels
Worth highlighting the very sharp decline in gold this week, which we honestly interpret as a liquidity event. Bitcoin, in our view, is holding up much better so far because of its real utility in this type of conflict when it comes to moving capital across borders. As a relevant point, keep in mind Iran’s importance in Bitcoin mining, accounting for roughly 4% of global mining. Allowing ourselves some speculation, and knowing that a large part of that mining is in the hands of the regime, this could perhaps explain part of the previous weakness as a financing need, rather than it being driven solely by the sell-off in the software sector.
Iran, Qatar & Strait of Hormuz
The context for everything this week is the same as last: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually halted since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February - roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a significant share of global LNG, effectively stranded.
This week, the conflict moved into new and more dangerous territory. Israeli strikes hit Iran’s South Pars gas field - a critical section of the world’s largest natural gas deposit - and Iran responded by bombarding Ras Laffan in Qatar, the LNG hub that supplies approximately 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Qatar has confirmed the damage will take three to five years to repair. That is not a supply chain disruption - it is a structural reshaping of the global LNG market for the better part of a decade. The beneficiaries are obvious and significant: Golar LNG, Venture Global, NextDecade, Cheniere, and the broader LNG infrastructure complex are looking at a sustained demand and pricing environment that was unimaginable a few months ago.
Commodity prices reflect the severity: Brent closes the week above $112, WTI at $98, and TTF - European natural gas - approaching €60/MWh. The Strait itself remains largely closed despite selective passage for a handful of friendly-flagged vessels. Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum - expiring late Monday - demanding the Strait reopen or face further escalation targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.
We are approaching a point of no return in global energy markets. We analyse the full implications for the LNG markets (and other sectors and asset classes later)
FED meeting
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the broader message from Powell was still somewhat hawkish. He was careful to stress that the SEP is not a commitment and should not be treated as a fixed roadmap, while reiterating that the current policy stance remains appropriate. The key takeaway is that the Fed still lacks enough confidence to begin easing meaningfully, particularly with inflation progress remaining uneven and new energy-related risks emerging.
Inflation: Powell acknowledged that inflation is still moving in the right direction, but more slowly than hoped. He said a hike was discussed as a possible next step and made clear that, without further progress on inflation, rate cuts will not come. Even though the median projections did not change, he pointed out that views inside the committee shifted toward fewer cuts, reinforcing a higher-for-longer message.
Middle East: On the conflict in the Middle East, Powell avoided drawing strong macro conclusions and said it is still too early to know the scale or duration of the impact. That said, he admitted that the recent rise in energy prices is already pushing up short-term inflation expectations and is likely to lift headline inflation in the near term, even if the Fed still prefers to frame the shock as isolated rather than structural.
Labour market: Powell’s tone on employment was more balanced than alarmed. He said the unemployment rate has changed little since last summer and argued that the labor market is not clearly a current source of inflation pressure. Still, he also noted that a meaningful number of committee members are becoming concerned about very weak job creation, suggesting labor softness is rising on the Fed’s radar even if inflation remains the primary focus.
The Week Ahead
The macro calendar is light - Monday brings January construction spending; Tuesday, earnings from GameStop and KB Home; Wednesday, February durable goods orders alongside Cintas, Paychex, and Chewy. Oil and Hormuz headlines retain primary market influence. The key binary for next week is simple: any credible de-escalation signal would likely generate a sharp reversal across the energy complex and a meaningful relief rally in equities and gold.
With 99% of the S&P 500 having already reported Q4 - roughly 72.5% beating EPS estimates, aggregate earnings growth running at ~14.1% YoY the earnings season is effectively closed. The remaining names worth watching:
Carnival — the most market-relevant report of the week. Focus will be on booking trends, onboard spending, and any commentary on demand elasticity as higher energy costs and macro uncertainty begin to test discretionary travel demand. Guidance will matter more than the quarter itself.
FedEx — one of the cleaner real-time reads on global trade volumes and pricing discipline. Commentary on international freight flows, margins, and fuel cost pass-through will be particularly relevant as investors assess whether the energy shock is filtering into the real economy.
Lululemon / Darden — a useful combined read on the health of the US consumer at the premium end. Lululemon frames demand for premium apparel; Darden checks restaurant traffic and consumer willingness to keep spending on experiences.
Accenture / DocuSign — Accenture is the better macro signal here, particularly for corporate IT budgets and consulting demand. The key question: are large clients still willing to invest in a more uncertain backdrop?
Equity Research - LNG Industry
This week has been one of the most important in decades for the LNG industry - a sector in which we specialise and across which we cover most of the relevant names. For that reason, we have split this publication into two parts:
A deep dive into the New Fortress Energy restructuring announced this week, where we review in detail the new capital structure, with particular focus on the preferred shares, the assets that remain in the listed company, the contracts attached to them, and what each of those assets is worth. We also present our independent analysis of NFE under different asset-sale scenarios and give our own view on the company.
A full review of the state of the industry after the attack on Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export hub, which knocked out 12.7 MTPA and confirmed that this production will not be fully restored for at least three to five years.
We examine the impact, how we think this will affect the futures curve and the TTF-HH spread under different scenarios, and how that translates into the valuation of the various companies:
Note: We have covered all these companies extensively over the years. Below are links to our most recent analyses (all updated in the last few months).
New Fortress Energy - Restructuring Deep Dive
On Tuesday, March 17, New Fortress Energy formally launched its balance sheet restructuring, doing so through a UK court process rather than through a traditional US Chapter 11 filing. We do not think this came as a surprise to anyone. In fact, after covering the company since 2019, we had already become highly skeptical by August 2024, following the FLNG debacle, and published several reports throughout 4Q24 and all of 2025 arguing that it was completely unviable for the company to repair its extremely stretched debt burden, whether organically or through asset sales.
The transaction itself is structured as a UK Restructuring Plan ( $5.7Bn, one of the largest transactions of its type ever completed under this framework - a court-sanctioned process under English law that allows a company to restructure its debt with creditor support, continue operating without interruption, and bind dissenting minorities through a cross-class cram-down mechanism. NFE has signed a Restructuring Support Agreement (RSA) with more than 50% of its creditors by value, which contains all material terms. The RSA is consensual, meaning the company avoids the adversarial dynamics and prolonged timeline of a US Chapter 11 filing.
The first step of the transaction is to split the company in two. NFE’s Brazilian operations - terminals, power plants and the entire Barcarena and Santa Catarina platform - will be spun off as a private entity called BrazilCo, reverting to its original name Hygo. It will be owned by a consortium of institutional investors and managed by the existing Brazil leadership team. Existing NFE shareholders receive zero equity in BrazilCo.
The remainder of the business - Puerto Rico, Mexico, Nicaragua, Fast LNG 1, and a portfolio of ten GE TM2500 turbines - will continue as a publicly listed entity under the ticker NFE. This is what the company calls “New NFE”. The corporate debt of “New NFE” will be cut from approximately $5.7 billion to approximately $527.5 million. In exchange, creditors will receive a combination of new debt, $2.5Bn preferred equity, and 65% of the common equity. Existing shareholders retain 35% of “New NFE”, subject to further dilution if the preferred equity is not repaid within three years. The transaction completion targeted for mid-2026.
Today we take a deep look at:
We break down NFE’s new capital structure and go in detail with Corporate Debt, FLNG2 Asset debt and new preferred shares
Each of the remaining assets individually, estimating the standalone EBITDA each one can generate, what it could be worth in a realistic sale process, and where we think the line sits between economic reality and management narrative.
The full range of operating and monetisation scenarios, looking at the resulting valuation outcomes, what we believe is most likely over the next three years, and whether this is a genuine opportunity or just another value trap.
Quite honestly, after seven years of covering the company and having been early on each step of what has unfolded over the past 20 months, we believe this analysis will be useful for anyone interested in the name.