NewPrinces - Is the Investment Case Broken?
Updated Equity Research
Hi there, we hope you had a fantastic week !
Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
The Week in the Markets
Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.
Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!
Equity Research
NewPrinces - Deep analysis of the company’s current situation after the first results from the 2025 acquisitions (Carrefour Italy, Plasmon, and Diageo Italy). Separate analysis of Princes UK and Carrefour, calculation of FCF, outlook estimates for 2026–2028, independent valuation, and our thoughts on the current situation after the 30% drop in two days
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Investor Resources
Data Center Update
Financial model Updates
Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Week in the Markets
After five consecutive weeks of declines, the S&P 500 finally posted its first weekly gain since the war began, helped by tentative signs that the conflict in the Middle East may be moving toward a more contained phase. Even so, and with the exception of small caps, the major U.S. equity indices remain negative YTD.
The tone of the week was largely driven by headlines around the conflict. After a weak start on Monday, equities rebounded sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a greater willingness to reduce direct U.S. military involvement in Iran. That relief rally faded somewhat after Wednesday night’s presidential address failed to provide any credible roadmap for de-escalation, prompting a renewed rise in oil prices and some pressure on equities early Thursday. Still, by the close of the week, the main indices had recovered most of that weakness and finished in positive territory.
One of the most unusual developments came in oil, where WTI spot closed above Brent - a highly atypical move that reflects an extreme dislocation in the prompt market. The shape of the WTI curve reinforces that view. Backwardation remains very steep, and this week’s strongest price gains were concentrated in the front end, suggesting that the market continues to assign a large premium to immediate barrels while still expecting lower prices over the coming months.
Another highlight of the week was the increasingly differentiated market reaction to the conflict. Despite WTI closing above $111, Energy fell 5.3%, suggesting investors are starting to look beyond the near-term benefit of higher crude prices for producers and focus more on the broader macro cost of sustained oil strength. At the same time, U.S. equities were supported by renewed leadership from large-cap growth, with the Mag 7 among the strongest areas of the market, while gold also moved meaningfully higher, pointing to a market that is reducing tail-risk pricing without fully abandoning defensive positioning. In that context, the 23% decline in the VIX is consistent with a market that increasingly views the conflict as contained, even if far from resolved.
Iran war
The geopolitical backdrop remains highly fluid, but the broader pattern is becoming clearer. Over the past two weeks, the conflict has oscillated between threats of further escalation and intermittent diplomatic signalling, with both sides appearing to use public messaging as much to shape market expectations as to advance any genuine path toward resolution. The underlying reality, however, has changed little: disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remains severe, shipping flows are still heavily constrained, and the market continues to trade the conflict primarily through the lens of immediate energy risk
That dynamic was particularly visible this week. Trump’s claim that Iran had requested a ceasefire helped support a relief rally in risk assets, only for Tehran to reject the statement almost immediately. Subsequent rhetoric from Washington again pointed to possible attacks on Iranian infrastructure, reinforcing the sense that conciliatory headlines are proving far less durable than the underlying escalation risk. On the Iranian side, signals of openness to mediation have continued to coexist with a refusal to accept the terms currently on the table. In practice, both sides still appear to be following the same playbook: de-escalatory rhetoric when needed to relieve pressure, but no meaningful retreat in strategic positioning. Markets, in turn, are becoming less reactive to the rhetoric and more focused on what is actually happening on the ground and around Hormuz.
Macro
The week’s macro data offered a more nuanced picture than the headline rebound in risk assets might suggest. March non-farm payrolls came in well ahead of expectations at 178K versus 65K consensus, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. February was also revised lower, to -133K from the initially reported -92K, making the rebound more meaningful than the headline alone would suggest. The only softer element was wage growth, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected. In isolation, that is a benign detail, but taken together it leaves the Fed with a less straightforward signal: hiring remains resilient, while wage pressure continues to ease.
Beneath that, the composition of the data was less reassuring. Services PMI slipped into contraction at 49.8, below both the 51.1 consensus and the prior 51.7, while manufacturing held up better, with ISM Manufacturing at 52.7. That divergence matters. Strong labour data alongside a weakening services economy suggests the shock is not being transmitted evenly. More industrial and capital-intensive segments continue to hold up, while consumer-facing areas of the economy are beginning to reflect the pressure from higher fuel and input costs.
In Europe, inflation is starting to move in the same direction. German CPI accelerated to 1.1% MoM in March, up from 0.2% previously, offering an early sign that the energy pass-through is beginning to appear in the data. For the ECB, which had been moving gradually toward rate cuts, this is an obvious complication. For European industry, it raises the risk of another period of cost pressure just as the region was beginning to stabilise.
The Week Ahead
The calendar is light next week given the holiday-shortened session, with no major earnings releases until Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands, and Applied Digital report on April 8.
The real calendar item to watch is the OPEC+ meeting, at which members will need to decide whether to press forward with their planned output increase of 206,000 bpd against a backdrop in which Hormuz disruptions are already limiting actual export volumes from Gulf producers. Any signal that Saudi Arabia or the UAE are considering additional voluntary cuts - or conversely, that the coalition fractures under the pressure of high prices and fiscal temptation - will set the tone for oil and energy equities into the following week.
NewPrinces - Updated Equity Research
NewPrinces - formerly Newlat, and controlled by the Mastrolia family since 2008 -closed a extremely difficult week after reporting its FY25 results on Tuesday morning. After rising nearly 10% on the day of the results presentation, the shares went on to fall more than 26% between Wednesday and Thursday, closing at their lowest level of the past 52 weeks.
At MORAM Capital, we have been covering NewPrinces - previously Newlat Food — since late 2022, closely following the company’s transformation into a European agrifood heavyweight through more than 20 acquisitions over the past two decades. The most important of these have taken place since its 2019 IPO, and especially since 2022, allowing the group to grow revenues from around €300 million to more than €6.5 billion and to expand its market capitalisation from below €200 million to more than €1 billion at its peak in the summer of 2025.
However, the last nine months have been highly turbulent, mainly for two reasons: the acquisition of Carrefour Italia - by far the most controversial deal in the company’s history - and the IPO of Princes, its UK manufacturing arm, which also includes the legacy Newlat assets. Both processes have been marked by major communication mistakes and by expectations that were set too high and ultimately not met.
All of this market dissatisfaction, combined with this week’s aggressive short attack (more on that later), driven by lower expectations for Carrefour Italia and the lack of detail around the turnaround plan, has left the company trading at around 3x EV/EBITDA with a net cash position (ex-IFRS 16). But we are not here simply to say that the stock is cheap and that nothing has changed, because that would not be true. If there is one thing we have tried to stand for over the past six years, it is to remain objective and transparent.
Our goal today is to provide the most detailed post-results analysis of NewPrinces’ current situation that has been published so far. In a critical and objective manner, we review all the available information, make informed assumptions about Carrefour’s situation - including lease costs, required capex, realistic synergies and 2026 free cash flow - and analyse Princes UK in depth, as it remains the key listed manufacturing asset.
We have deliberately chosen to produce a thorough piece of work, asking the difficult questions and trying to provide the most reasonable answers, rather than rushing out a superficial note on Wednesday. We believe the result has been worth it.
Today we analyse in depth:
FY25 results, with a detailed breakdown of the main drivers, Q4 negative FCF, the balance sheet,…
An independent assessment of the current situation at Princes UK and Carrefour Italia
The key elements of a potential Carrefour turnaround, including real estate, synergies, and operational levers
Our 2026–2028 outlook, based on our own assumptions
Our estimate of Carrefour’s free cash flow based on all currently available information
Capital structure - both at Princes and at NewPrinces - and the group’s financial position
Our independent valuation, both for Princes on a standalone basis and for NewPrinces, under the two scenarios we consider most likely
Our thoughts on NewPrinces and what has changed since Tuesday