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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
The Week in the Markets
Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.
Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!
Equity Research
NextDecade - Initial Equity Research of this developer of the Rio Grande LNG terminal in the US that could become one of the largest in the U.S. With 30 MTPA under construction, strong partners like TotalEnergies, GIC, GIP, and Mubadala, and most capacity already contracted.
Our report covers NextDecade’s business model, a detailed review of the Rio Grande LNG project, its capital and debt structure, and our financial model estimating EBITDA and cash flows for each train. It concludes with a valuation of the company and our independent view on the investment opportunity NextDecade represents.
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Comments on NewPrinces, Golar LNG, Solaria, Puig, Excelerate Energy, Kosmos , Campari ..
Investor Resources
Data Center Update
Financial model Updates
Nota: Tenéis este initial Equity Research de NextDecade disponible en español en nuestra pagina web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Week in the Markets
Summary
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank remains on track to cut rates again this year, citing rising downside risks to employment. Other officials echoed support for more easing. The Fed’s Beige Book showed flat economic activity, with steady jobs and wages but slower spending and higher prices.
Gold surged to new record highs, supported by expectations of lower interest rates and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. AI-related stocks continued their parabolic rise, further concentrating market leadership in the tech sector. Meanwhile, Treasury yields across the 2- to 10-year curve declined sharply, reflecting growing confidence in upcoming Fed rate cuts and a softer economic outlook.
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China remain a concern, though recent de-escalation and an upcoming Trump–Xi meeting have eased fears of new tariffs. Despite the government shutdown, inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%, driven by earlier tariff pressures, but could moderate if tariffs stabilize.
The third-quarter earnings season kicked off in full swing on Tuesday, led by strong reports from major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, all of which exceeded expectations. By Friday morning, roughly 12% of S&P 500 companies had released results, and 86% beat analyst estimates, a trend that helped lift market sentiment throughout the week.
New concerns over small regional banks emerged after Zions Bank and Western Alliance reported loan fraud losses, sending the KRE index sharply lower. However, larger banks remain strong, with low defaults and solid earnings, suggesting the issue may be isolated.
3Q25 Earnings Season
The 3Q25 earnings season enters its first major phase this week, following last week’s kickoff led by the big banks. Now, attention shifts to a broad mix of industrial, tech, and consumer blue chips, with heavyweights such as Coca-Cola, Netflix, GE Aerospace, Tesla, Texas Instruments, IBM, Intel, Honeywell, Dow, American Airlines, Ford, P&G,... This week’s lineup covers almost every corner of the U.S. economy and should give a real sense of where growth stands — from consumer spending to industrial activity and tech investment. It’s also one of those weeks that helps test how solid margins really are and how confident companies feel about spending.
Initial Equity Research - NextDecade
NextDecade is a U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas company leading the construction of Rio Grande LNG, an export terminal located in Brownsville, Texas, with a total capacity of up to 48 MTPA if all eight projected trains are eventually built (optionality up to 10 & 60 MTPA)— which would make it one of the largest LNG export facilities in the United States.
Currently, Trains 1–5 (30 MTPA) are under construction and are expected to become operational between 2027 and 2031. In fact, NextDecade reached FID on Train 5 just this past Thursday. Altogether, this represents a total CAPEX commitment of around $30 billion, of which $20.32 billion is debt-financed (project finance).
To secure the financing required for such a massive project, NextDecade has brought on board partners such as Mubadala, TotalEnergies, GIC, and GIP, which have taken equity stakes in the project. NextDecade retains up to 20.8% of Phase 1 and 40% and 50% of Trains 4 and 5, respectively (percentages that increase once certain milestones are reached). At the same time, the company has secured commercial agreements for 92% of Phase 1 capacity (Trains 1–3) and 76% of Phase 2 capacity (Trains 4–5), leaving the remainder exposed to the spot market.
NextDecade’s share price has appreciated over the past few years as the project has achieved key milestones — such as new FIDs and the resolution of FERC environmental licensing issues — thereby de-risking the story. However, the stock has fallen nearly 50% over the past month following the Train 4 FID announcement. The company currently trades at a market capitalization of $1.8 billion, with an enterprise value below $5 billion.
As a pre-revenue company, NextDecade is complex to value because it requires understanding its ownership structure across the trains, the debt structure both at the corporate level and at Rio Grande LNG LLC, as well as existing warrants, expected cash flows, and obligations once operations begin. Given that LNG is one of our main areas of expertise, we have decided to include NextDecade in our coverage universe and, over the past several weeks, have carried out a detailed Initial Research addressing all the key aspects outlined above:
Business model of LNG exporters (SPAs & Spot).
Assets: detailed review of the Rio Grande project.
Capital structure: breakdown of NextDecade and Rio Grande debt, including PIKs and covenants.
Financial model: EBITDA and cash flow projections for each train under our own industry-based assumptions.
Valuation of NextDecade.
Our independent opinion on NextDecade and the potential opportunity it represents.