Reflection on Kosmos Energy, CAAP 2Q25 results analysis + TFF CEO Interview
Portfolio Management update
Hi there, we hope you had a fantastic week !
Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
The Week in the Markets
Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.
Equity Research
Kosmos Energy - Initial Analysis
Corporación America - 2Q25 results analysis
TTF Group - Meeting with its CEO, Jerome Français
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Investor Resources
Data Center Update
Financial model Updates
Nota: Toda esta publicación está disponible en Español en nuestra web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Week in the Markets
Summary
Markets hit new all-time highs this week, driven by Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, where he hinted that the Fed could begin shifting monetary policy (starting to cut interest rates) as soon as September — with markets now pricing in almost a 90% probability.
The latest data (along with major revisions) suggest the labor market is in a fragile spot, and the Fed is likely to prioritize it over the strict 2% inflation target.
The main beneficiaries have been small caps, boosted by rate-cut expectations, and cyclical sectors — particularly commodities — which see the door opening to a more inflationary outlook.
Conversely, megacaps have seen significant outflows, and we believe NVIDIA’s earnings release next Wednesday after the close will be critical in determining whether this rotation continues (a miss would accelerate it).
From our perspective, the key macro highlight of the week has been Ethereum reaching new all-time highs after four years — a move we are well positioned for through ETHH.B call options.
Kosmos Energy
Kosmos is a well-known O&G company for Golar shareholders, as it is — together with BP — the counterparty of the Golar Gimi in the Greater Tortue (GTA) project offshore Mauritania and Senegal.
This project, mainly due to COVID, has suffered delays of more than three years and cost overruns in the billions, which have significantly strained Kosmos’ finances. In addition, Kosmos’ flagship asset, the Jubilee field in Ghana, is operated by Tullow Oil — a company notorious in financial markets for its ongoing financial distress. That situation has led Tullow to underinvest in field maintenance, resulting in production falling from ~100 kbopd just 18 months ago to barely 60 kbopd today, pushing up the unit operating cost per barrel and heavily pressuring Kosmos’ balance sheet.
In fact, anyone looking at Kosmos through a stock screener right now would see a company with a market cap of ~$800M, EBITDA of <$500M over the last twelve months, and net debt of $2.85B (with ~$600M of maturities coming due in 2026 and 2027). At first glance, it looks far from attractive as an investment.
So why are we looking at it? Mainly for three reasons: first, because several subscribers have been asking us about it for months; second, because highly respected investors with whom we maintain close and regular contact have encouraged us to take a deeper look; and third, because we’ve been invested in Golar for more than five years, and given Kosmos’ role as Golar’s main customer at GTA, it is a company whose results we already follow closely.
That said, this analysis is a bit different from the ones we typically publish here. Instead of scrutinizing the entire company, we will focus on answering the two questions that we believe truly matter for Kosmos’ current situation — and that, in our opinion, will determine whether this is a value trap or an attractive investment opportunity with a compelling risk/reward profile:
What assets does Kosmos have, what stage are they in, and what is their production profile?
What is the composition of its debt, and what other obligations must it face in the near term?