Solaria - Updated Investment Thesis & Offshore Drilling Industry II
Moreover, the analysis of IDT & Brown-Forman results
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Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
Equity Research
Solaria - After three years in the wilderness, the stock is starting to shine again—driven by momentum in its new Infrastructure and Data Center divisions, progress on battery storage, and the upcoming commissioning of 1,400 MW. Today, we take a fresh look at Solaria to assess how much of this is a mirage and how much is real.
Offshore Drillers (Part II) - Focus on fleet, debt and economics
IDT - Analysis of Q3 2025 results, which come alongside new all-time highs.
Brown Forman - As we highlighted in our initial equity report, troubles persist for the owner of the iconic Jack Daniel’s brand. We take a closer look at their latest results.
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Nota: Toda esta publicación está disponible en Español en nuestra web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Solaria - Investment Thesis Update
Introduction
Solaria is one of the leading renewable energy companies in Europe, created in 2002 by its current CEO and IPOed in 2007. It suffered the consequences of the major renewable energy crisis in Spain (during the years of the global financial crisis), which forced it to transform into an IPP. Historically focused on photovoltaic energy in Spain, it is also present in Portugal, Greece, and Italy. It was really in 2019 when it began its growth phase. In just over 5 years, combining ambitious goals and the best execution in the sector, it multiplied its installed capacity by 20 times, going from 75MW at the end of 2018 to the current 1658MW (without the need of any capital increases).
In recent years, due to the saturation of solar energy in Spain (its main market by miles), it has diversified into wind projects (UK) and initiated storage projects, which it will begin to connect in the next 3 months.. Similarly, it has launched an infrastructure division to own the land where renewable projects are developed (StonePeak recently acquiring 50% of that business at a €250 million valuation ) and has focused on the opportunity in Data Centers, where it expects to capitalise on the high demand from technology companies and are positioning themselves as the referent go-to player in Europe to support tech companies.
However, after peaking in 2021 (surpassing €3 billion in market cap), the company plummeted to the depths, trading at under €700 million. A combination of industry headwinds and significant delays in project commissioning (they haven’t connected a single new MW to production in the last 21 months. This is overshadowing the progress in the company’s new divisions—Infrastructure, Data Centers, and the Storage segment—and attracting short sellers to its stock.
This “journey through the desert,” as the company itself describes it, now seems to be nearing an end. The stock has surged over 50% in the past 10 days on the back of earnings-related news. That said, it wouldn’t be the first time their CEO has been guilty of overpromising and underdelivering in recent months.
Today, we revisit the initial analysis of Solaria to get a better view of everything that’s happening within the company and to assess the size of the existing opportunity. We'll evaluate whether the recent 40% rally is justified and try to understand what to expect in the coming months.