Updated Equity Research: Kosmos, NewPrinces, Catana, IWB
MORAM Capital
Hi there, we hope you had a fantastic week !
Please find this brief summary of the topics we are covering today
The Week in the Markets
Our weekly summary with the best charts to understand what happened in the markets in 1 minute, along with explanations for those who want to dive deeper.
Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Alternative Assets, Macro Data, company commentaries, Earnings Season, and much more!
Equity Research
Italian Wine Brands
Catana Group
NewPrinces
Kosmos Energy
Portfolio Management
Including updates on our 3-stage monitor, comments on several companies, and our macro views, along with their respective movements in both equities and all asset portfolios.
Investor Resources
Data Center Update
Financial model Updates
Nota: Tenéis todos los análisis disponible en español en nuestra pagina web
Disclaimer: This publication is for educational purposes only and should not be taken or considered as investment advice under any circumstances. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Week in the Markets
A strong relief week for global risk assets, driven primarily by the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The immediate reaction was most visible in the assets that had absorbed the largest geopolitical risk premium over the prior days: oil fell sharply, equities rallied, and markets briefly moved back into a more constructive risk-on regime. Emerging markets, Japan and crypto were among the main beneficiaries of that shift in sentiment, while U.S. indices posted their strongest weekly gains since November.
At the same time, the speed of the rebound also confirmed that equities remain highly reactive to any sign that geopolitical stress may stop worsening. In our view, the move makes sense mechanically after the previous de-risking, but it still says little about the durability of the recovery. From here, markets are likely to remain extremely headline-sensitive, particularly to anything related to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which energy markets normalize. That remains true after Sunday’s U.S.-Iran talks ended without an agreement, as markets are still trading a fragile pause rather than a durable resolution.
The key point, is that the market has only removed the peak of the fear premium, not the underlying supply disruption. Brent still finished the week at roughly $95.2/bbl and WTI at $96.6/bbl despite recording their worst weekly declines since 2020. In other words, the oil market is no longer pricing an immediate worst-case scenario, but it is still far from pricing full normalization.
That is also why we would be careful about reading this week’s rally as a full reset. Markets are reacting to a pause in escalation, not to a credible resolution. For energy, freight and inflation-sensitive sectors, the relevant question is not whether oil fell 13% in a day, but whether physical flows normalize over the coming weeks. Until that happens, a meaningful part of the shock remains embedded in the system.
Friday’s March CPI report confirmed that message. Headline inflation rose 0.9% month on month and 3.3% YoY the highest annual reading since May 2024. The driver was overwhelmingly energy: the gasoline index rose 21.2% in March, the largest monthly increase since the series began in 1967, while the broader energy index rose 10.9%. By contrast, core CPI rose just 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year, again suggesting that the inflation shock is, for now, still concentrated in energy rather than broadly embedded across the basket.
For the Fed, the conclusion remains uncomfortable but relatively clear. The central bank has room to stay patient, but not much room to sound relaxed. A core print that remains contained argues against an immediate tightening response, yet the scale of the energy shock makes it difficult to reopen a dovish narrative. If oil remains elevated and second-round effects begin to appear in transportation, logistics, food and other consumer categories, the policy backdrop could become materially more difficult over the next one to two CPI prints.
That is the real issue going into the second half of April. The March data mainly captures the first-order energy shock. The more important question is how much of it starts feeding through into airfares, freight rates, retail pricing and consumer behaviour. In that sense, the market’s interpretation of this CPI report as broadly benign may prove directionally right for the very short term, but it would still be premature to assume that the inflation problem is behind us. Sunday’s U.S.-Iran talks ending without a deal only reinforces that point: this is a pause in escalation, not a clean normalization path.
Next Week
The Q1 2026 earnings season is now getting underway again. As usual, the first meaningful wave is dominated by the large US financial institutions, with the banks and asset managers setting the initial tone for the quarter. That said, this is not just a financials-heavy week. We also have several relevant reports across semiconductors, streaming, staples and healthcare, with names such as ASML, TSMC, Netflix, PepsiCo, Abbott and Johnson & Johnson all due to report.
After a period in which macro, rates and geopolitics had again become the main drivers of market attention, the focus now starts to shift back, at least partially, to company-specific execution. The first set of results should help frame the early debate around capital markets activity, credit quality, AI-related demand and the resilience of both consumer and defensive end markets.
Financials (JPM, GS, C, WFC, BAC, MS, BLK) – The first real test of the season. Beyond headline EPS, the key areas to watch will be investment banking activity, trading revenue, deposit and loan trends, credit quality and management commentary on both the consumer and corporate backdrop. BlackRock should also provide a useful read on flows, risk appetite and broader market participation.
Semis / AI capex (ASML, TSMC) – Probably the most important area of the week outside financials. Market will be looking for confirmation that AI-driven demand remains strong, but also for any sign of bottlenecks, normalisation or greater caution at the leading edge. ASML matters for lithography demand and order momentum, while TSMC remains one of the clearest barometers of how real the current AI capex cycle still is.
Streaming / platform consumer (Netflix) – The focus should remain on subscriber trends, engagement, ad monetisation and pricing. More broadly, Netflix will be another test of whether the market is still willing to reward consistent execution in large-cap platform businesses trading with elevated expectations.
Defensive consumer & healthcare (PepsiCo, Abbott, Johnson & Johnson) – These names should offer a useful read on volume resilience, pricing, input costs and the tone of demand in more defensive categories.
On the macro side, Tuesday brings the March PPI, which will be watched closely after this week’s CPI surprise. Wednesday brings U.S. import and export prices. Thursday includes weekly jobless claims and the Federal Reserve’s industrial production release for March.
Updated Equity Research - Kosmos Energy, NewPrinces, Italian Wine Brands, Catana Group
Today we bring together the analysis of four companies we first covered - and, in some cases, held in the portfolio - back in 2021, all of which are now undergoing meaningful transformations that we think warrant a fresh look following this week’s new information.
For each of them, we review the current situation, debt profile, independent valuation, and our conclusions on the timing and potential opportunity in each case - which differ quite materially.
Kosmos Energy - We review the reasons behind Goldman Sachs’ downgrade and the company’s current situation.
NewPrinces - This week’s management comments and our assessment of the post-results situation.
Catana Group - A leading company in the catamaran market, with sales currently at the lower end of the cycle and a significant expansion plan underway.
Italian Wine Brands - One of Italy’s leading wine distributors and a leader in the Prosecco segment, it has completed several M&A transactions in recent years and is now moving into new market segments.
Note: We leave the link to our latest analysis of each of them. (In the Portfolio Management section, we talk about them weekly; we’ve started adding these sections to the website so they can be found more quickly.)
Kosmos Energy
Kosmos Energy is a company we have followed since 2020, initially through its connection to Golar LNG in the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) LNG project, where Kosmos - alongside BP - contracted Golar’s FLNG Gimi to monetise its offshore gas resources in Mauritania and Senegal. That link first brought the name onto our radar, although the investment case has evolved materially since then.
We published our initial equity research on Kosmos at the end of 2025 and a subsequent update a few weeks ago, where we reviewed the asset base in detail. At the time, the company’s core portfolio was spread across four main areas:
Ghana (Jubilee & TEN) - ~31,100 boepd net (4Q25)
Equatorial Guinea - ~6,200 boepd net (3Q25, asset since agreed for sale to Panoro Energy for up to $220MM)
Mauritania & Senegal (GTA) - ~14,200 boepd net (4Q25, at nameplate 2.7 mtpa capacity)
Gulf of America - ~16,900 boepd net (4Q25)
That research also covered in depth the difficulties Kosmos accumulated over several years: COVID-related delays and cost overruns at GTA, operational underperformance and deferred investment at Jubilee - driven in large part by weak reservoir management and a delayed seismic refresh under Tullow’s operatorship - and a series of 2026 guidance publications that implied a steeper decline rate than the well data appeared to support, and which seemed aimed primarily at improving the company’s position in bondholder negotiations. The combined effect was severe: through 2025, the company’s market capitalisation fell by more than 75%, reaching lows below $450MM against a debt load approaching $3.0B and TTM EBITDA struggling to remain above $500MM. At those levels, Kosmos required near-flawless execution across operations, refinancing and asset disposals at the same time.
Since then, the picture has changed materially - though not completely. The Equatorial Guinea sale, a $175MM equity raise completed in March 2026, a new $350MM secured bond and the repayment of the 2026 notes have addressed the most acute liquidity concerns. Net debt now stands at approximately $2.5B. Current production has stepped up to around 75,000 boepd, including Equatorial Guinea, following the J-74 Jubilee well that came online in January, while GTA is running above nameplate. The market has recognised part of that recovery, with the stock re-rating to a market capitalisation of roughly $1.5B, despite this week’s sharp decline following headlines around a potential Middle East ceasefire and Goldman Sachs’ downgrade.
The question now is whether that recovery has already been appropriately priced, or whether meaningful upside still remains - or whether, as Goldman Sachs argued this week with a downgrade to Sell and a $2.25 price target, the market is still being too constructive on a company that remains highly leveraged and exposed to execution risk.
To answer that question, today we look in detail at:
A full review of Goldman’s note - what we agree with, what we do not, and where we think the analysis overreaches
Debt and operating profile - a closer look at leverage, refinancing risk, production mix and near-term cash generation
Detailed DCF valuation - base case, key assumptions and sensitivity analysis across oil price, taxes and financing costs
An independent view on Kosmos - how we think about the current setup after the capital raise, asset sales and recent market reaction