Campari 2024 - Annual Results & Forecast Commentary

Resilient Performance Amid Challenges

Campari is the sixth-largest player worldwide in the global premium spirits industry. Among its more than 20 brands, Campari, SKYY Vodka, Grand Marnier, Courvoisier or the emerging Espolón tequila or its star brand, Aperol, stand out.

Since its IPO in 2001 it has managed to multiply its revenues and EBITDA 6x (Revenues 494 to €3Bn, EBITDA 105 to €0.65Bn) as a result of a strategy that has combined the acquisition of more than 30 companies since 1995 and its organic growth with brands such as Aperol going from a turnover of just €25 million in 2003 (acquisition) to more than €700MM today. or Tequila Espolón, which since 2009 (acquisition) has gone from invoicing just €10MM to almost €300MM today.

However, Campari's last 18 months have been very complicated, not only with the contraction in demand that the entire sector is suffering but also with the farewell to its emblematic CEO (Kunze-Concewitz) who had been in his position since 2007 (and who, as we will see later, together with the founder of Campari and his son Davide, had become the third most important in the history of this brand), with the resignation of his successor (just 6 months after starting in office), with the acquisition of Courvoisier for almost €1.3Bn (which today, seems clearly surpassed) or with some scandals surrounding the Family Office of its Chairman, Luca Garavoglia (who is taking advantage of the situation by buying millions of shares)

We presented one of our most comprehensive analyses in these five years of publishing Equity Research just three weeks ago. Today, we complete it with an analysis of its results (which the market has received very well), share our valuation model using the DCF methodology for Campari, and provide our perspective on the opportunity and strategies.